Goldman sachs gao hua: local photovoltaic subsidy policy or soon launch

Put it on August 17, research reports, released by the national development and reform commission and a phone call after the meeting, the agency for pv electricity prices yields expected, low provinces and cities, may soon be out of photovoltaic power Internet subsidies local.

The bank last week with the national development and reform commission, deputy director of the energy research institute LiJunFeng held a conference call. A meeting of the national development and reform commission announced details of the power compulsory photovoltaic (pv) in China, and the influence of the rising demand discusses in detail.

LiJunFeng said, 2011 and 2012 respectively photovoltaic demand for 2 and 3 GW GW in 2015, is expected to this demand will reach 15-20 GW, in 2020 then will rise to 50-100 GW. Goldman sachs gao hua points out, pv whole needs stable, development and reform commission and optimistic outlook for 2020 long-term goals (70 75 GW) was 9% higher than the expected 17%.

The meeting also discussed the current demand growth for the long term photovoltaic obstacles. China's western region solar project of photovoltaic power tariff for 1.15 or $1 / kWh is feasible will is a difficulty. In addition, power transmission and distribution system is still under construction, which can make domestic pv market growth stalled.

Research report points out, in view of the internal rate of return low provinces and cities, more local governments may soon launch local photovoltaic Internet price subsidies.

Goldman sachs gao hua said, local photovoltaic Internet faster than expected price subsidies launch may make LiJunFeng expected 2012 3 GW needs further improvement. Thus, the bank keep 2012 4 GW demand forecast unchanged. Goldman sachs gao hua estimates, before 1 July, state-owned enterprises 3-4 GW solar project has been in preparation.

Domestic demand will be a certain degree of the concerns of the European demand ease. Goldman sachs gao hua expects its research within the scope of the solar energy sector in 2012 in 3 p enterprise-9 times. Among them, suntech power (STP) and (pv) will is local ahigh photovoltaic Internet subsidies electric policies of the main beneficiaries, because the two companies in China have a better sales channels.

But, the market recently more attention is the second half of this year the demand growth, and obvious reason is supply and demand, nonprofit ability under the imbalance, average selling prices is likely to continue under pressure.

In the medium term, Goldman sachs gao hua think, the policy will be a milestone, means that China could become the main contributor to the global solar market.