National Development and Reform Commission recently published "China out of incandescent Roadmap (draft)." According to the draft in 2016, will completely eliminate the use of ordinary incandescent lighting. China out of incandescent roadmap will be finalized this year, released on October 1, will be five steps to gradually ban the import and sale of incandescent light, out of targeted products for general lighting incandescent lamps, not including reflective incandescent spotlight , decorative lights, and other types of incandescent lamps and incandescent lamps for special purposes. In the past 130 years for mankind to withdraw from a bright incandescent lamp market of today, it took the baton is better lighting and more energy-efficient energy-saving lamps.
LED light source technology is emerging as a strategic industry, state the reason why such great importance from a strategic height, because the development of semiconductor lighting industry, the significance of a huge energy savings. It is understood that the electro-optical conversion efficiency of incandescent lamps less than 10%, electro-optical conversion efficiency of energy-saving lamps are incandescent at least twice, if at all incandescent replaced with energy-saving lamps, the annual saving 48 billion kwh, equivalent to reducing carbon dioxide emissions 48 million tons, energy saving potential.
From the Solid State Lighting Industry Alliance R & D and the information, energy-saving lamps in China in 2010 the overall market scale reached 100 billion yuan. By 2015, energy-saving lamp market will reach 500 billion yuan, the annual compound growth rate will reach 38% from the cost point of view, the current generally optimistic about the LED lights, for example, in the next 10 years, the brightness can be expected and then increase by 20 times, the cost will be reduced to the existing 1 / 10 Industry experts said that with the pace out of incandescent, energy-saving light globe will usher in a favorable investment market. According to the agency expects 2015 output value of China's LED lighting will reach 500 billion yuan, accounting for 30% of the mainland for more than the general lighting market.
High-profile LED industry chain
LED as a green light, its extremely wide range of applications, at present, the main areas of application in China including LED displays, traffic lights, car lights, LCD backlighting, keypad, digital camera flash, decorative lighting, street lights and general lighting.
LED industry has a long chain, each area of technical features and capital characteristics vary widely, from upstream to midstream to the downstream industry to gradually reduce barriers to entry. Upstream of the wafer with a typical high-tech, high capital characteristics of the upstream chip also has a high technical content, relatively capital-intensive features, encapsulated in the middle reaches of the technical content and capital inputs to be lower, and applications of technical content and the minimum capital investment . NDRC statistics show that China's LED lighting chips, packaging and application value of the ratio of 1:9:22, with nearly 70 upstream companies, packaging companies, more than 1,000, more than 3,000 enterprises downstream applications. LED lighting applications downstream industry, is the capital gathered.
The industry believes that the LED chip and related electronic components, LED products energy-saving lamps there is a huge investment opportunity, after a long period of adjustment, the valuation has a comparative advantage.
LED industry analyst at Industrial Securities bullish on long-term development of LED industry, that "five" will be the golden age of development of the industry, optimistic about the industry chain and downstream applications of high-end packaging sectors. Societe Generale Securities that, LED is the LED lighting industry chain package throat, will usher in a development opportunity, this session will be the trend of modular; in LED lighting applications, LED industry chain cut into the traditional lighting companies with optical design areas of accumulation, part of the LED lighting an advantage. Market participants generally optimistic with a certain scale, with their own brand of LED lighting manufacturer, size, and channels are in fierce competition to win the downstream edge.
SW Securities, predicted late last year, with the promotion of energy saving, LED lighting is coming of age. In the field of LED package, SW optimistic about the country star power and other securities of listed companies. In addition, because the crystal technology that has the blessing of technical innovation in packaging technology is expected, the market should also be concerned about.
Investment Advisor in the photovoltaic industry researcher Tian Bosheng that energy-efficient lighting in the LED industry to benefit from the listed companies, Ruifeng power in high-end LED packaging business, is currently the third largest SMDLED packaging manufacturers, the gross margin level in the forefront of the industry, in the lighting field has a number of patents, has unique advantages, the rapid expansion of production capacity is expected to better the future development prospects; Foshan lighting in the lighting business, and strength, profitability and strong, in the LED lighting products have achieved significant breakthroughs in related technologies leading level. With energy-saving lamps and LED is expected to further expand the market, Foshan lighting's future growth potential remains strong.
Experts point out that in the entire LED industry chain, the upstream industry is a capital-intensive, high technology, high-return part of the upper reaches of the core patented technology focused on Japan Nichia (Nichia), Cree (American Career), Osram (OSRAM Germany and Europe) and the hands of the few foreign giants. Epitaxial wafers and chips in the U.S. and Japanese companies a monopoly advantage. Second, some listed companies lack experienced management and R & D engineers and other core aspects of the LED wafer and the lack of intellectual property rights upstream, and therefore into the energy-efficient lighting and LED industries need to pay attention to the risk of investors to be cautious when treatment.
LED strong stock market performance
Currently, LED stocks have three optical, Silan, shares the same side Xindeco, Fanta, sun lighting, Fukuda Electronics, Shanghai Belling, China Microelectronics, Foshan Lighting, Aucma, dry according to optical, Ruifeng power, Hongli Opto-electronic, Chau Ming technology, electronic Alto, BDO Runda, Union Optical, etc.
LED industry in addition to lighting, the still smart phones, tablet PCs and other fields have a wide range of applications. With smart phones, tablet PCs and prosperity and the rapid penetration of LED LCD TV upgrade, LED backlighting LED market for promoting the rapid growth of short-term the main driver. 2009 LED LCD TV penetration rate of only 3%, but the first half of 2010 and quickly rose to 16%, means being able to quickly meet the LED backlight industries starting new enterprises of high growth momentum.
Government support and, driven by new applications this year, China's LED market is expected to raise 23 percent more than last year due to more widely used in LCD TVs and street lighting, LED not only become a popular Chinese-made products, and is very attractive investment area.
In addition, LED industry clusters and emerging industrial base in order to scale of the industry ranked first in Guangdong Province, Huizhou, Career, BYD lighting and a number of over 10 billion investment project in Guangzhou on LED; Germany and Europe OSRAM and so have sent to Guangdong, Konka, Skyworth, Han's Laser and other listed companies in mergers and acquisitions, to increase their investment into the LED industry, etc.; Dongguan Kingsun, Dongguan Fu, Fenghua Hi-Tech, etc. over a hundred million of the LED scale backbone enterprises, have been initially the total size of the formation of a super-LED industry with 50 billion yuan.
Investment Advisor in Senior Fellow Li Yuheng said that in the double positive policy and market situation, a pool of technical and policy-edge companies, such as sun light, Furi Electronics, Union Optical, Xindeco and other long-term market-leading position and benefit from.
Societe Generale Securities in the LED industry, recently released research report that the current can focus on LED lighting applications and has a brand of high-quality chips and other areas, to maintain the LED sub-industry "recommended" rating.
Societe Generale Securities pointed out that the LED industry, product mix and customer structure factors so that domestic enterprises and LED TV LED backlight boom correlation smaller, but still facing slowing demand, production capacity oversupply risks. If the lack of demand, only have the technical capabilities and cost management, and actively explore new areas of enterprise application products can survive in the industry reshuffle.
GF Securities that, starting in 2011, LED industry will enter the high growth era. 2011 to 2012, output value will reach $ 14 billion and 205 billion U.S. dollars, the growth rate reached 40% and 46%, LED industry into the high growth track, this year there is explosive growth in LED lighting possibilities.
Orient Securities analyst Zhou benefits that new energy in recent years, on the one hand by the national industrial policy role in promoting a positive factor, especially in landscape lighting, local government financial subsidies, which greatly stimulated the development of LED industry, thus driving the LED significantly reduce product cost; the other hand, it is technological progress, but also production costs decline rapidly. Therefore, the LED industry, recently received funding clearly shares of all ages.
